Dumb Money or Greed Fails

The following was posted yesterday by Newsweek online.

The Road to Zell
How the Tribune deal went so bad, so fast.

By Daniel Gross | Newsweek Web Exclusive
Dec 9, 2008 | Updated: 2:41 p.m. ET Dec 9, 2008

What's the difference between Smart Money and Dumb Money? Twelve months, the popping of a credit bubble, and about $800 million.

In the run up of asset prices, which ended about a year ago, everyone was a genius. Hedge fund managers felt wise for borrowing large sums of money and buying stocks, commodities, or pretty much anything that went up. Private equity barons bought companies, issued debt to pay themselves dividends, and were hailed as master investors. Heck, even millions of homeowners felt like Einsteins for refinancing at lower rates. And hardly anyone was deemed smarter than Sam Zell.



The Chicago-based real estate investor, nicknamed the Grave Dancer for his delight in picking up dead businesses and reviving them, built Equity Office Properties, a collection of high-end office buildings. In February 2007, Zell was lauded as a genius for unloading the company in an all-cash transaction valued at about $38 billion (Blackstone put in $6.4 billion in cash and borrowed the rest), after a frenzied bidding process. But Zell wasn't content to take his winnings and stow them under the mattress. Having benefited from the dumb money culture—people willing to pay high prices for leveraged assets in the hope and expectation that they'd be able to sell them to other debt-fueled buyers at even higher prices—Zell loudly plunged right back into it. (Regular readers of this column should expect to hear more about the culture of dumb money—I've got an electronic book about it in the works with the Free Press.) In December 2007, Zell closed on the $8.2 billion acquisition of the Tribune Co., putting in $315 million of his own money and borrowing much of the rest. Make no mistake about it, The Tribune Company was a classic dumb money play, and not just because its main assets were declining newspapers.

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Get More from Your Market Research: Think Like a Chess Master

Most marketers know how to get data. It's the strategic analysis that they struggle with. I've talked about this before, but it continues to be one of the most important challenges facing marketers. "How do I find out what I should do?"

Here's the trick. "It's not enough to know when to leap. You have to know the reason." This nugget of wisdom is courtesy of Bruce Pandolfini, from his book Every Move Must Have A Purpose.

Why do we struggle with strategic analysis? Because we focus on when and where to leap and ignore the reason. What's the "why" behind the tactical action?

The subtitle of Pandolfini's book is "Strategies from Chess for Business and Life". So what can chess teach us about strategic analysis? "Chess is change. Action and reaction. Every encounter offers a multiltude of intricate and layered relationships to disentangle."

Okay, so how does all this make it easier to figure out what you should do? Data is not insight. Data provides facts, but it is not self-evident. You will not find a piece of data that says, "Here's what you should do next and why." For that, you have to perform strategic analysis. Here are some tips to help you do that. They may seem a little cerebral. Don't be intimidated. They're actually easy--and, oh boy, do they work.

How to Analyze Data Like A Chess Master

1. Use Situational Awareness - For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. Look at what you're seeing--the data. Are you seeing the "action" or the "reaction". In almost every case, you're seeing the reaction. As an analyst, your job is to figure out what action occurred to cause the reaction you've just seen. Being aware of the action/reaction relationship is also called "situational awarness". Rather than waiting for data to come to you, you watch for the subtle interaction of everything in view.

2. Find the Purpose of the Action - People and organizations don't make meaningless movements. As Pandolfini says, "every move has a purpose." What purpose you ask? Pandolfini explains it: "In an ideal state of affairs, moves should always do at least two things in concert: foil our opponent's aims while fostering ours." So every action is motivated by the desire to foil our competitors' efforts or improve our own position. Begin with the premise that all actions are selfishly motivated until proven otherwise. You'll be amazed how often you're right.

3. Think Three-Dimensionally - Pandolfini says, "We must be supple-minded, for neither the position nor the opponent is likely to calcify." In the movies, they call it a "reversal". When it appears that one thing is about to happen only to have something entirely different happen. It makes us laugh, wince, and smile. It makes the story fun and compelling. Thinking three-dimensionally means looking for the reversal. Not accepting the obvious. "Rigid preconceptions can lock us in, preventing us from finding alternate routes," Pandolfini explains. Magic relies on our entrenched belief that all things happen the same way always. When you look at data or you read a story...ask yourself, is this really what is happening of is it slight-of-hand, a head-fake.

4. Sit in Their Seat - Actors work to understand Stanislavski's system and Strasberg's method style of acting both of which are focused on the actor immersing themselves in the character so their intuitions stem from the character rather than themselves. Too often, marketers rush to judgement and only see data that supports their assumptions or opinions. They don't take the time to sit in their customers' seat--or their competitors' seat. Stop selling and start listening.

5. Never Stop Thinking - How do we get mentally lazy? What does it look like? We begin relying on our experiences, beliefs and principles rather than what we see. The minute we recognize a familiar pattern, we abandon thinking altogether. As Pandolfini advises: "To win at chess...You don't play principles. You play moves. They decide your fate; cliches' don't." This may be a little difficult to grasp. It's part of the three-dimensional thinking. If what you see doesn't fit what's familiar, or only partially fits, don't make it fit. Look at it as something entirely new.

These five steps are not about research or data. They help you think about the data. That's where the insight is. Think of it as a game of chess and every move must have a purpose.

Thank you Bruce!